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Narrative and Numbers: The Value of Stories in Business (Columbia Business School Publishing), by Aswath Damodaran

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Review

Damodaran's success in combining storytelling with traditional financial analysis and valuation is unprecedented. The book has the potential to be a cornerstone of both traditional valuation and business "pitching" as it shows how individuals from each world can benefit from co-opting tools from the other. The author takes us on his personal journey into the realization that numbers need a narrative in order to make them persuasive. (Paul Johnson, Nicusa Investment Advisors)Professor Damodaran's point-counterpoint case studies make valuation a good read. Self-critical in his contemporary examples, he wisely cautions the reader that quality valuation requires both the right and the left side of one's brain―the number cruncher and the storyteller. (Thomas E. Copeland, University of San Diego)Damodaran, instructor to many on valuation, clearly demonstrates that quantitative valuation formulas are not sufficient: they must be applied with a more qualitative narrative about the business. But qualitative analysis has its dangers, not the least that we insert our own biases into the narrative. Damodaran nicely weaves stories into the more formal quantitative analysis, with check and balances that yield a more confident valuation. (Stephen Penman, author, Accounting for Value)No one has contributed more to the craft of valuation than Aswath Damodaran. In Narrative and Numbers, he correctly shows that you can't understand the stock without the story. After Damodaran's eye-opening tour, you will forever appreciate the vital contribution of human nature to number-crunching. (Michael Mauboussin, Head of Global Financial Strategies, Credit Suisse)Damodaran takes us to the place where Joseph Campbell, Warren Buffett, and the best quantitative analyses of Nassim Taleb intersect, and his journey uncovers new value and risk missed by analysts who bias themselves by relying solely on storytelling or number-crunching. It's a hero's journey best supported by humility―and this first-person account of Aswath's own evolving narratives, analyses, and valuations of Alibaba, Amazon, Uber, Theranos, Ferrari, and more. He may have started as a quant, but Damodaran's now one of the most balanced analysts―and wonderful business and financial storytellers―writing and teaching today. (David Foster, CEO, Business Valuation Resources)Read Narrative and Numbers if: You’re even the slightest but curious about adding a little storytelling to your number crunching the next time you research an investment. (Angele McQuade Better Investing)

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About the Author

Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education and professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is the author of Applied Corporate Finance, Fourth Edition (2014), Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset, Third Edition (2012), The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit (2011), and Damodaran on Valuation: Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance, Second Edition (2006).

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Product details

Series: Columbia Business School Publishing

Hardcover: 296 pages

Publisher: Columbia University Press (January 10, 2017)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0231180489

ISBN-13: 978-0231180481

Product Dimensions:

6.4 x 1.2 x 9.1 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.3 out of 5 stars

28 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#217,420 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This book provides a great framework for avoiding "garbage-in, garbage-out" when approaching the valuation of a business. Professor Damodaran hits on the key points, but does leave the reader with some work to do in terms of implementation. The included examples are indeed helpful, but referring to his website helps to fill in the gaps between idea and practice.I think this book will be particularly helpful for one 'dark side' of the valuation game - trying to close in on the possible value for a startup or early-stage business tackling a potentially new market. The iterative process of revisiting key inputs (the fewer the better) is also emphasized, something which is a helpful thought exercise to evaluate a change in a company's story/narrative and what that means to the value of the business.

A very good book indeed. Perhaps there is no better book for anyone wanting to learn or perfect their skills as a financial analyst. Damodaran is an apostle of the DCF method for valuing companies and stocks, and shuns P/Es and other relative valuations. The book is excellent at describing the process from A to Z of understanding a company and framing a numerical analysis within a comprehensive story of what the company is and where it is headed. The author provides many and very good examples of how to approach this, and offers a very good framework for understanding most types of company: start-ups, mature companies, cos. in the commodity industry. The only ones he does not include are banks, which he covers in other books. He explains how to create a narrative around a company, and also provides detailed examples of how to go about the numerical analysis of cash-flows correctly and avoid unrealistic or implausible scenarios.

Really connects the story to the numbers. Outstanding review of how to test the story!Would recommend to anyone serious about understanding valuation.

The procedure of valuing a stock through is rather simple once it has been learnt. And when looking in retrospect on why old valuations turn out to be incorrect it is rarely due to getting the mechanics of the valuation tool wrong. Instead it is almost always because the sales or profits turned out very differently from what was forecasted since the company, its strategy or business environment developed in an unanticipated way – the narrative was wrong. This is a book on how to combine the numbers of the valuation tools with a narrative that brings life, understanding and, by this, increased precision into the valuation made. The author is a well-known finance professor at NYU who has written a large number of finance books.As I understand it the book started with the author posting and updating the narratives and subsequent valuations for a number of stocks like Uber, Amazon, Apple, Alibaba etc. online. They now feature as case studies throughout the book. Taking a step back, Narrative and Numbers is also a personal journey for Damodaran as he over time has developed from a pure number cruncher to taking a more holistic approach. I find that when a reader is invited to share an author’s personal development the result is often very likable. This book is no exception and it is evident that the author has enjoyed writing it.The structure of the text is very, well… structured. Damodaran tells you that he will combine narratives and numbers, he describes the basics of one of those, then he describes the basics of the other one, he merges them and finally discusses the consequences. The author who describes himself as a “teacher first” gives us short but thorough accounts of the two components before merging them into a greater whole. And to clarify, the narrative referred to in this book is the fundamental story of long-term value creation drivers for the company, not the flimsy, often biased and constantly shifting stories that always surround listed companies on the stock exchange. All the way through the book we get to follow the described process through the case studies and there are further several illuminating pictures giving good oversights of the reasoning.The advocated valuation process is to:1. develop a narrative for the business,2. test the narrative to see if it is possible, plausible and probable,3. convert the narrative into drivers of value,4. connect the drivers of value to a valuation and5. keep the feedback loop open.Interestingly the author calculates one value of the company as a going concern and one liquidation value and then estimates the probabilities of each life-or-death scenario. I very much appreciate the 3P test in stage 2 and the openness for change in stage 5 importantly tries to ensure that the narratives are reasonable and don’t becomes stale and outdated in the light of changes. Damodaran’s arguing for the importance of having enough humility to alter ones opinion brings to mind similar arguments from George Soros.My main caveat is that the process doesn’t explicitly enough ensure a combination of an inside view and an outside view when developing the story. When forming a narrative it is very easy to focus on the uniqueness and thrill of the situation at hand and extrapolate from the recent history. Often this leads to too high expectations and bottom-up sell side analyst estimates are partly due to this almost always too optimistic. The outside view treats the situation statistically and takes into account the outcome of many similar historical situations. In business where success is governed by both skill and luck both viewpoints have merit.To make good forecasts narratives must meet numbers. Without the verbal structuring of the fundamental business story of a company it isn’t even possible to understand the numbers to start with. Damodaran shows that good decisions benefit from several points of view such as the numerical and the verbal and I fully agree.This is a review by investingbythebooks.com

Must read for any Valuation Analyst.

Prior to 'Narrative and Numbers', I had the pleasure of being able to read 'Investment Valuation', 'The Little Book of Valuation', and 'The Dark Side of Valuation'.This book will not teach you how to be a better storyteller or a mathematician, but it will point you in the right direction. 'Narrative and Numbers' will help everyone to balance their brain hemispheres, and in my view, this is Prof. Damodaran's magnum opus.

Very good marriage between Stories and Numbers. Elaborates why Valuation craft has to do as much with storytelling as with models and numbers.

There's nothing absolutely revolutionary in this book. But this an accessible book which reiterates fundamental principles of valuation and investing.

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